Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #7

You're probably saying to yourself, there haven't been many Germans picked yet. And you'd be right, because Chris Kaman is still on the board. But there's another German left who might be a better pick, Dirk Nowitzki. You know, 2007 MVP. 2006 NBA Finals MVP in the non-Bennett Salvatore alternate universe (DC Comics' Earth-9). Anyway, if you've had Dirk on your team the last few years, he would have been a damn fine cornerstone. This year should be no exception, what with him not so playoff weary after 2 1st round exits, Kidd passing him the ball, and not a whole heck of a lot of really great scoring help besides Josh Howard. Here, look at the numbers:

PPG - 23.6
3PG - 1.0
RPG - 8.5
APG - 3.5
SPG - 0.7
BPG - 0.9
TOPG - 2.1
FGAPG - 17.1
FG% - 48.0%
FTAPG - 7.1
FT% - 87.9%

And if you really get down and dirty with the numbers, Dirk was the third best fantasy player in the league once Jason Kidd became a Maverick. That's heady numbers. And the thing about the Mavs, is they are good, but they aren't that good, like a 5 or 6 or 7 seed out West. That means they won't get blown out by great teams so the big guns like Dirk will be playing 4 quarters. And in games where they blow out the Memphises, the big guns will still put up winning numbers in only 3 quarters. Here's where you like having those slightly-above-.500-team players. Mind you, you shouldn't make this an overall drafting strategy, but it's just a happy by-product of having guys from these teams. It's like if you enjoy "The Real World" but don't have a DVR and you never catch it when it's on. No need to change your life or anything, because MTV has so little quality programming you just need to wait until they run some Real World marathon on a Sunday morning. At least I think it's like that.
Corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion - Bobby and Cindy get lost in the Grand Canyon chasing a Native American boy. You're picking 7th and you think, what to do, what to do? You think a trip to the Grand Canyon will be great, but you've already been robbed and jailed by Thurston Howell III, got a sore ass from mule rides, and lost 2 kids in a huge national park. Chevy Chase on vacation laughs at you. But then all is well and you get to go to a tribal ceremony and get cool Indian names except for Peter. Right now, you've got one of the top performers in the league, and after 6 picks, you'll have one of the top 14 players to go with Dirk. Nice.

At this point, I'm looking at 2 options: best remaining center-eligible and best point guard-eligible. You'll get a little better feel for eligibility once Yahoo's player list comes out. But center-wise, you're looking at a group of Duncan, Brand, Camby, Bosh, Yao, Boozer, and Gasol. If any of those first four fell into your lap, I think that makes the decision fairly easy. Boozer is interesting - plenty of good numbers there, but maybe not enough for a high second round pick. If you go point guard, you're looking at what's left in a group of Dwyane Wade, Baron Davis, Allen Iverson, Gilbert Arenas, and Steve Nash. If you like your point guards to be scorers, you're in luck. There should be no way that all of those guys are gone before it wraps around back to you. Now, if you're in a 12 team league, it's a bit more of a pickle. With Dirk, you will need either a top notch C or PG - not much left. But you can add 2 names to your list who aren't one of those - Josh Smith (for blocks) and Caron Butler (for steals and FT). You'll be forward-centric, but you can't believe they'll be there for you in round 3. And like I said in the Chris Paul post, Dirk in a short week is a problem because his strengths really get minimized in a 2 game week - %'s, pts, rebs, 3's. You'll need a number 2 who can rack up numbers in the harded to achieve counting categories - assists, steals, and blocks. So here I like Nash, Camby, Smith, Butler.

Anyway, 10 team league, and my second round looks to go for big or medium, then hope one of the next-tier point guards being there in round 3 - Deron Williams, Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis. If those 3 are off the board or if there is another PF/C too good too pass up (Al Jefferson, David West), I'm moving down the PG list to Mo Williams, Andre Miller, Brandon Roy territory. Just stop me before I amble into Rafer Alston/Raymond Felton/Kirk Hinrich country. (But there may be a place for Rajon Rondo-land, especially if he plays like he did in some (but not all) playoff games.)

With Dirk on your team, a solid way to go is a team in his image - focusing on percentages, points, rebounds, and low turnovers, hence going big in round 2. You'll be scrambling for blocks and threes all year. Steals, you'll have to get lucky on. And I'm focusing on a few high FG%/relatively low TO point guards - Andre Miller, Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Devin Harris, Tony Parker, and Rajon Rondo.

Here's my round by round targets when I've got Dirk:
Round 1 (#7) - Dirk
Round 2 (#14) - C, PF/C
Round 3 (#27) - PG, F
Round 4 (#34) - best player available regardless of position
Round 5 (#47) - best PG available to screw whoever doesn't have a PG, best scorer left
Round 6 (#54) - best rebounder available
Round 7+ - round out roster, fill in SG/SF gaps, get a guy who shoots 3's
Round 23 - Eddy Curry

Whereas some guys you pick in the first round, you want to combat weaknesses, Dirk is a guy who I think you should pick people around him that magnify strengths. You won't get blown out head to head and you can pile up 6-3's and 5-4's into the playoffs. You may not be in first, but you'll be that "team you don't want to play in the playoffs". Well that's always fun, isn't it?

Friday, July 11, 2008

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #6

You've come up with pick number six and think to yourself, "What the frank am I supposed to do with this?" Well, Frank, you could pick a guy who a year or 2 ago might have been top 2. Matrix. Marion, Shawn. Big guy, used to be on the Suns. He fills up the stat sheet, but not so much last year. Also, he is no longer playing with Steve Nash. In fact, his point guard this year in Miami is aptly named "Not-Steve Nash" (I think he went to UCSB). Corresponding Brady Bunch emotion: Bobby and Greg get locked in Sam the Butcher's meat locker - all because Bobby tried to act cool and big, complaining the whole episode about being little. Then they got out because he was small enough to fit through the window in the door. The lesson is - know your damn place! Shawn, you put up great numbers across the board, but you aren't going to be the one to lead the team and have the ball in your hands at the end. Leave that to guys like D-Wade. But keep putting up the numbers.


PPG - 15.7
3PG - 1.1
RPG - 10.4
APG - 2.2
SPG - 2.0
BPG - 1.4
TOPG - 1.4
FGAPG - 12.7
FG% - 50.8%
FTAPG - 2.4
FT% - 70.7%

07-08 was not the best year for Shawn, and his numbers the last part of the season weren't anything to write home about - he was barely top 50 with the Heat when healthy. His percentages, scoring, threes, and blocks were down, rebounding was up. The lack of Nash factor was huge. Miami's point guard situation isn't any better, but maybe with everyone healthy and not being a D-leaguer should work out better for them. And the big thing for Marion this year is summed up in 2 little words - contract year. Fantasy-wise, the Heat team poses a number of questions: is Wade healthy? What kind of numbers will he put up? How does Marion do? Are there enough touches for Wade, Marion, Beasley, Haslem? (The answer for are there enough balls for Chris Quinn and Daequan Cook - no.) I'd like to think this roster shakes out a little better as November approaches. Taking Marion means you'll have a lot of questions the first few months of the year, maybe too many to warrant a pick this high at #6. The thing is, you aren't going to find defensive numbers like his anywhere else. The key now is, who do you take at #15 and #26?

My first inclination - be the anti-Steve Kerr and put Marion and Nash back together again. Marion is low TO, Nash high TO; Marion high steals, Nash, low steals. Marion low assists, Nash high assists. It's a nice little dovetail. You're going to need a scorer soon, so target points in round 3. A bit of a reach, but you could go Jose Calderon - if you were recapping the draft as you would chess moves, there would be an exclamation point after that (preferably not a question mark). The case could be made for Calderon: plenty of assists, low turnovers, more steals. The scoring volume is not there as it is for Nash, especially with threes. But now that you know he has the full allotment of Toronto PG minutes; that could make the difference. While this would be a reach at 15, you can't imagine he would be there at 26. How bad do you want him on your team? Oh, and Boom Dizzle, now a Clip, wouldn't be too bad of a pick here. Of course if it were between him and a big, I'd go big. Maybe Bosh or Brand slips to here? I can't imagine it, but picks 11-14 are going to be really interesting in your draft, as there are a lot of talented people out there who are just below the first round level.

So Marion is one way to go - and right now I have him penciled in at #6. You could make the case for who I have at #7 to go higher. This guy....

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #5

Hmm, #5, some good players off the board. But has anybody picked a guy who really likes Sprite? No, I'm not talking about Miles Thirst, he's retired. I mean a guy looking for a witness, the one man gang, LeBron James. Dude can score, rebound, and pass the ball. Straight D, the man can steal it and block it as well. But now we're at the point where the top guys you pick have problems that you've got to counteract. You see the TO's - again, as with Kobe in your non-TO leagues, that's aiyight. It's those motherflippin' free throws. 7 for 10 three times a week will kill you. It I doubt it will get any better in '09. (Corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion - multipart episode where the gang goes to King's Island. You know, that's in Ohio. Isn't that where LeBron plays? Sure he's great and all, but in fantasy hoops, is he really all that? The Brady's are SoCal dudes and dudettes - how psyched are they to go to an amusement park in Cincinnati? I mean, Disneyland is right down the road, why not go there? It's where this young impressionable lad finally became cynical in the world of corporate synergy. I liked the Banana Splits, but that was some weak manufactured drama. Yogi Bear in the plans cylinder. Uh-huh. Although Marcia and Jan running throught the park - that's when you realize, 'hey, when did they get those knockers?" And Greg, dude, you live in Southern California, there's hotness at every corner, do you really have to work that hard to get an Ohio chick who you'll never see again in a day or two? I thought Mr. Something-Suddenly-Came-Up was a babe magnet, but this episode makes me think that the Greg as a loser portrayal in The Brady Bunch Movie was spot on. Casanova of Clinton Way my ass.)

PPG - 30.0
3PG - 1.5
RPG - 7.9
APG - 7.2
SPG - 1.8
BPG - 1.1
TOPG - 3.4
FGAPG -21.9
FG% - 48.4%
FTAPG - 10.3
FT% - 71.2%

30 points per freaking game - that's Peter Griffin sweet. And if you take a look at the Cavs roster (get out your safety goggles) no one else is going to pick up the slack, maybe the Big Z on a good week. Barring injury, all of these numbers are going to hold - good and bad. Sure, you'll get the 30 a game, but those turnovers aren't going to get magically better now that he's passing to Joe Smith for a full year, huh? Oh, and enjoy that 71% free throw shooting. It's going to hound you all year, except for that one week he really turns it on and shoots 49-52 to really piss off the guy you are playing.

See here, LeBron is going to be the first guy taken in the fantasy draft where you have to construct your team to overcome or counteract a weakness. Chris Paul doesn't rebound, but he's not supposed to rebound; it's a gap, but not a weakness. LeBron's FT and TO's are serious holes to dig out of. You are going to want to target specific guys to craft the best team. Personally, I think it's best to have taken LeBron in the middle of the first round - #4, #5, or #6. That way, you'll have less picks in between where you are going an less likelihood of your guy being plucked off the board.

Anyway, in picking with LeBron, you could go the way of having a team with Kobe and gettinga bunch of scorers to go with him. I think Allen Iverson fits quite nicely with James. You'll help your free throws, scoring stays high, steals will be nice. Steve Nash is another decent pick here, too. It's not great, but decent, and either way, you'll have a nice assist tally each week. You're pretty much sunk in turnovers now. And I'd like to see how the Olympics and Heat training camp go, so we know what to do with Dwyane Wade. LeBron and Wade on your team would be nice to tell your friends who aren't in fantasy basketball. May not win you the league, but hey.

All told, LBJ is going to make your team interesting and your draft funky. You've got a lot of different ways to go, but it looks like a best player available type of deal, and get ready to deal during the year. You could change all that, and go with a guy who has somehow fallen to 6th...

Friday, June 27, 2008

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #4

No mincing words here - the 2008 MVP is up for picking. Kobe Bean Bryant. Now you have to be prepared once you pick him. Sure, get ready for pick #17. But more importantly, you have to be ready for the stream of jokes, live or online, with some form of "Tell me how my ass tastes" involved. It very well could be the most popular permutated team name once it gets around nba.com and Yahoo censors. I say you've gotta go pre-emptive and shave Gary on your head. "My pick, and it tastes like victory, is Kobe Bryant." "I don't know about Shaq's ass, but y'all can kiss mine after I win this year, I'm picking Kobe." You've got a few months, think of something. Anyway, corresponding Brady Bunch episode - Peter gets the part of Benedict Arnold in the school play. What the hell was up with this junior high? It was a part in the play - Peter was not actually a traitor, give the voice-cracking f*cker a break. It's like hating Matt Damon as a person and in future roles because he tried to screw over Brendan Fraser in "School Ties". And did this part seem overly large? I know BA played a part in the Revoluitonary War, but hello? General Washington. Continental Congress. Ben Franklin. Thomas Jefferson. These are your money players. Did we really need Benedict's death scene? C'mon, get realz.

Kobe stats

PPG - 28.3
3PG - 1.8
RPG - 6.3
APG - 5.4
SPG - 1.8
BPG - 0.5
TOPG - 3.1
FGAPG - 20.6
FG% - 45.9%
FTAPG - 9.0
FT% - 83.9%

Now if you're in a non-TO league, you have to give consideration to Kobe as a #1 or #2 overall pick. But that 3.1 in a TO league is a serious number. With the ball in his hands so much, he's going to hand it over a pantload. Same deal with LeBron (we'll get to him soon enough). You could go the strategy of picking the high TO guys, but ones that can pump you up in other categories, e.g., Steve Nash, Josh Smith, Allen Iverson, then further down to Hedo Turkoglu, Gerald Wallace, Dwight Howard, and if your draft has 23 rounds, Eddy Curry.

Get your red flags out - he's going to be spent after a long playoffs, surgery, Olympic ball. All, true, so you'll have to keep an eye on him post-Olympics. Anything wrong, and you'll have to bump him up. But let's assume Kobe is Kobe. Who do you get at #17 to work with him? I think the key for Kobe is that he gets to the line a lot and makes a great amount of them. Kobe's 84% is much more valuable than Nash's 91%. I like a guy, preferrably a big, who can enhance the FT's, because this will help in points and FT%, a couple of great cats to lock up. The boldest strategy is to go with someone who is a good bet to play half the year, Yao Ming. You have to do some serious homework on him to see if he is ready come November. If you nab him at 17, I think you have to go with someone Center-eligible at 24. Now you're talking about not getting a guard until pick 37. Or go guard at 24, then center eligible at 37. Someone will take Yao in the early rounds; either you are a Yao guy or not. Personally, I'm not, but what are you going to do? With the potential breakdown factor of Kobe and Yao, be prepared to be a waiver wire wizard this year. And get ready to pick up whatever Timberwolf forward not named Jefferson starts getting major burn.

At #17, I'm looking at a second scoring threat to go with Kobe. You'll need someone who can score on those weeks LAL has 2 games. Iverson tickles my fancy; say goodbye to turnovers, but you could be watching ESPN's Friday night West Coast game and have them both go for 40 - now wouldn't that be freakin' sweet, Mr. Griffin? Baron Davis would be a nifty little Staples Center duo, n'est pas? And if any of the scoring bigs happen to fall, like Bosh, Boozer, or Duncan (notice Pau Gasol is not on this list), you'd have to go for one of those. And is this the spot where Nash should land? As good a spot as any. I'm thinking that he's a guy that doesn't give you the full 82 games, but the West is so tight, he'll have to but his back out there every night.

So here's my list of options to go in the 2nd round if you picked Kobe:
1a) Chris Bosh
1b) Tim Duncan
1c) Carlos Boozer
1d) Yao Ming
2) Allen Iverson
3) Baron Davis
4) Paul Pierce (well aren't you just too cute)

For round 3, I'm going with another scorer. If someone's left in the above list, nail it, but add to your list Kevin Martin and Vince Carter. I'd throw Jason Richardson in there, but that drunken mess of a Bobcat roster has me freaked out seven ways to Sunday. Round 4, I want another scorer; I'd say Melo, but he won't last to #37 as he is going to be overvalued by somebody. Target Iguodala and Joe Johnson. You already have a high turnover team, might as well bring them all on. And Dwight Howard would be nice here. In this spot. Not earlier. And if you have with Kobe another high volume/high percentage FT guy like Kevin Martin or Allen Iverson.

With Kobe on your roster, I say make him the foundation for a scoring juggernaut, at least with the top four or five on your roster. That means goodbye TO's and blocks. Also, it means none of these guys as high picks - Camby, Kirilenko, Kidd, Odom, Rasheed (but you could do Duncan or Yao). You'll need a PG, so I'm looking at Mo Williams somewhere around round 5 or 6. Your 5, 6, and 7 picks are where you're going to flesh things out on the roster. Put these guys with your scorers and you might have something: Rondo, Bogut, Chandler, Gooden. And if you really like the points, take Kevin Durant in round 6 - not half bad in the 2nd half of 08.

Anyway, picking Kobe means you have to seriously counteract a deficiency in one of your top players - turnovers. In your non-TO leagues, that's out the window; I might move him up to #2. I say with Kobe, load up on scorers, get ready to trade in December to round out the roster, and stay hot on the free agent market for rebounds and blocks guys. Now go have some Nutella. Now, if you have pick #5, you may want to employ this same strategy, say if you picked ...

Monday, June 16, 2008

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #3

Here's the part of the draft where things get muy interesante, muchachos y muchachas. You've got pick number 3 (corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion - Greg meets Don Drysdale; very cool moment, but don't get all uppity and start thinking your shizznit don't stink). Right now, you can pick someone and think to yourself, did I make the right pick? Do I take Kobe and his 28 points per game and high percentage and volume free throws, even though he's going to take 20 shots and turn it over a bunch? (In your non-turnover leagues, I'm seriously thinking about taking Kobe at #3.) Do I take LeBron and his 30 ppg and chance for a triple-double every night but take hits with turnovers and free throws? (I would be looking at LeBron if I'm picking in the middle of the draft - say picks 5 or 6 in the first round, because you will definitely need the right guys to counteract his deficiencies and you don't want to be 18 picks between players and watch all the right guys fall off the board.) You could make a case for Dirk, too (who will be an excellent pick in the latter half of the first round). Or you could go with the guy who has been at the top of the draft for years and may have his first ring by this time now:

Kevin Garnett

PPG - 18.8
3PG - 0.0
RPG - 9.2
APG - 3.4
SPG - 1.4
BPG - 1.3
TOPG - 1.9
FGAPG - 13.9
FG% - 53.9%
FTAPG - 4.7
FT% - 80.1%

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, now NBA champeen. The guy you wanted at #1 for years. Now you've got him at three and you will also get one of the top #18 fantasy players in the league (perhaps higher if you've got a couple of idiots in your league). He's getting up there in age, but still not too bad. You have to watch out for injuries because he plays so balls to the wall. And if you've had him any of the last few years, you have to worry about him come (fantasy) playoff time - with the T'wolves, it was season ending "injuries". With the Celtics, it is clinching a high seed then rest in late March/early April.

Okay, you've got KG, what's next for picks 18 and 22? Well, looking at KG's numbers, you can see that he is no longer a 20 and 10 guy. With his age and the way the Celtics are set up, you can see him getting 20 and 10 in some games (say a Game 6 of an NBA Finals), but not averaging a 20 and 10. I think he would be great to pair up with someone who can do that, like a Carlos Boozer or an Al Jefferson or a David West. Then, you're left taking the best guard available at 22.

With KG's shooting percentages so high, I think you can make a gamble with a scoring guard/SF who may not have the highest FG%. That puts AI, Boom-Dizzle, and Rashard Lewis into the mix. 18 is too high for Vince Carter; I don't want Paul Pierce - here is a case where 2 top teammates can hurt you, too much volatility, and you'll be pissed the night it is Ray Allen or Rajon Rondo's turn. I'm on a wait and see with Gilber Arenas. If he's ready to go November 1, he could be your man. I think Manu Ginobli is interesting here if completely healthy - the Spurs may be falling back to the pack soon, but I think they will be raging against the dying of the light and Manu and Duncan will be pressing to stay relevant. So if Duncan falls to 18, you've got to grab him.

Anyway, may suggestion if you get KG at #3 your picks in rounds 2 and 3 - one of the top big men left: Duncan, Boozer, Jefferson, or West; then a scoring PG/SG/SF. I think you'll need 2 scorers out of these picks; you don't want to have to pick up Ben Gordon later. Of course, if you really wanted a scorer, you could pick the guy I have at #4 .....

Monday, June 9, 2008

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #2

I've made my pick at #1 - Chris Paul. If you're coming after me, you've got your pick of everyone else, so enjoy. As Mr. Roarke said, "Smiles, everyone!" While not Numero Uno, still, #2 is pretty good. Unless you have your sights set on one and only one player and that guy is gone, you are sitting pretty sweet. (Corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion: potato sack races in the backyard. Everybody is having a grand old time on the Astroturf, save one - Jan Brady; here you have the pick of the litter, save one, and I have just compared Chris Paul to Jan Brady. In the end, all nine in the cast are jumping in sacks at the end. That's how I like to think of my fantasy team, nine guys in potato sacks on Astroturf.)

Go ahead, pick Dan Gadzuric if you want. Might I suggest a slightly better option, for the man who likes beef:

Amare Stoudemire

Here are his '07-'08 numbers:

PPG - 25.2
3PG - 0.1
RPG - 9.1
APG - 1.5
SPG - 0.8
BPG - 2.1
TO - 2.2
FG% - 59.0%
FT% - 80.5%


Man, Amare was tight last year, especially after Phoenix was de-Matricized (28.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg). Pardon me for not noticing sooner, but when did STAT become a money free throw shooter? He's around the rim all game, so he's going to get to the line, roughly 9-10 times a game. Let's see how he does with Diesel all year. That engine is sure to break down over the course of the year. Expect pace to go down slightly next year without D'Antoni, but I don't see Terry Porter completely revamping the offensive system for a Van Gundy-like slowdown game.

Okay, you've got STAT, now it's time to see who will be there at 19 and 22 (assuming you're in a 10 team league). Well, you'll eventually need help with threes. You couldn't go too wrong with either Rashard Lewis (a hair too high, n'est pas?) or Kevin Martin (there's a lot of questions marks on the Kings). Paul Pierce is a possibility as well. If you're going big, one of these guys may be left - Brand, Duncan, Boozer, Camby. If I have Stoudemire, here is where I seriously give thought to the Camby/Josh Smith quinella. But is locking down blocks worth it when you will have to make up for points and percentages and assists somewhere else? I think you'll have to bank on 1 of a few players being available at 39 - Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon (now with 100% less TJ Ford), or in a bit of a reach, Tony Parker. Again, if Josh Smith somehow gets SG eligibility again on Yahoo, that can become a big help in those leagues.

Anyway, someone good is going to be available at 19 - the question is, do you want a complement to Amare, or a multiplier? I say, get the best big available at 19, especially if the person who picked #1 took Paul. You've got to assume that person is going big at least once at 20/21. A top notch guard will still be there at 22.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #1

I know, your draft is months away and this season isn't even over yet. Well, get to thinking about it, fool! Lay some groundwork, get a gameplan, don't rely on a magazine that comes out in October but was written in August, and asking "Why does he like Francisco Garcia so much?". In fantasy hoops, the draft is very vital, more than a recital; in a couple of words, it's tricky. Thanks to the snake format, you can win from any position. But no matter the draft, you always want the number one pick. It's got style, cachet, and if you screw it up, your buddies will call you Michael Jordan - not the "championship winning MJ", but the "drafting Kwame Brown MJ".

Let's say you win your draft lottery, or sucked so much they give you the number 1 pick. Okay, you're picking number one - have to be excited, but temper it with the fact you won't have a pick again for almost 2 rounds (Corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion: family learns they are going to Hawai'i for Mike's working vacation. Paradise, but frought with danger.) Depending on your league's rules and format, here's who I'm taking with pick #1, round 1:

Chris Paul

Here are his stats for last year:

MPG - 37.6
PPG - 21.0
3PG - 1.2
RPG - 4.0
APG - 11.6
SPG - 2.7
BPG - 0.1
TOPG - 2.5
FG% - 48.0 (16.1 per game)
FT% - 85.1 (4.9 per game)

On Basketball Monster, CP3 is the number 1 ranked player based on a 9 cat league (3's and TO's included), which is incredible for someone with 2.5 turnovers. There were only six 20 and 10 guys - Paul the only one in assists and not bounds. He led the league in steals. And sweet Mary and Joseph, look at those percentages! If he was a borderline first rounder last year, he's easily in the top half of your first round for 08-09. If you take him, you're set up for strength in 4 categories - assists, steals, percentages, and not too bad in turnovers since there are about 20 top notch guards alone who have more.

Another key here - Paul's strengths make him nearly schedule proof, i.e., his strong categories are ones that can be severely hampered by a 2 game week for a normal player. Paul can give you 20 assists and 5 steals in a short week, meaning you can lock him in and adjust your team a lot easier in short weeks. Now, you shouldn't be taking your #1 pick out of the lineup in a 2 game week, but CP3's 2-gamer won't have a crippling effect on your stats, like if you had Dirk Nowitzki as the #1 on your team playing a short week. Dirk is a main man in points, percentages, and rebounds, with decent blocking. All of those categories can be overcome by an slightly better than average player playing 3 games to Dirk's 2. Think Lamarcus Aldrigde x 3 : Dirk Nowitzki x 2. Now if you have Chris Paul playing only 2 games in a week, and he just has an average week, that's 23 assists, 5 steals, 5 turnovers, 2 or 3 three-pointers, and percentages that won't kill you. Compare that to a middle of the road PG playing 3 games, say, a T.J. Ford: 18 assists, 3 steals, 6 turnovers, 1 or 2 three-pointers.

Okay, you've got Chris Paul, where do you go? Let's say you're bold and you took him number 1. For simplicity, we'll say it's a 10 team league, so now you're up at 20 and 21.

Plan Alpha - little/little

You've got your starting point guard; in a typical lineup, you have an SG and a G spot still left (plus whatever U's). Dream scenario - you have your pick of top point guards left, preferrably one with shooting guard eligibility. Allen Iverson is a possibility, but you've got to worry if he goes back to his pure chucking/turning it over days of the post Larry Brown era. Deron Williams may be a bit of a reach, but you could own assists and rock percentages. Monta Ellis is an even bigger reach, but he shouldn't be there at 40. It might be a good gamble to pass at 21 and see if he lasts to 40. Boom Dizzle could be around at 20. You could wager that he has a good, healthy year as the Clippers main man. Chauncey Billups is good, but his minutes should go down with more of a Stuckey presence. Of course, I thought his numbers would go down last year - eventually I'll be right about him. I'd put Nash in the conversation, but a) someone is bound to take him in the first 2 rounds and b) age and a change of pace from the D'Antoni Suns have to effect his numbers. Oh, and let someone else in your league play with Jason Kidd; don't be sucked in by the near triple double averages. I don't want one of my guards shooting 41%. (Says the guy who had Jamal Crawford on his team for a stretch last year. On purpose). Of course, if you are employing the "I'm gonna win rebounds this year, by cracky" strategy, go right ahead. If so, what the hay-yell are you doing picking Chris Paul?!?

For the shooting guard side, Paul Pierce may still be out there. I'd look at some of the steal guys - Iguodala, Rudy Gay (Josh Smith if Yahoo somehow keeps its head up its collective ass and gives him SG eligibility again and he's still on the board). Kevin Martin would be great if you really want to lock down FT% (86.9% with an outstanding 9.5 attempts per game). And take a look at Jason Richardson, but keep him on the down low, because he doesn't immediately come to mind as a top 20 player.

If you're employing the little/little strategy, I'd go with the best PG (better - PG/SG), and then one of the top scorers who can do something else. Deron Williams and Rudy Gay would be a tasty combo. Now you're going to need some beef out there later. Rounds 4/5, you're almost locked into picking someone center-eligible. Oh, and it looks like you've punted blocks. Oh well, you might win a head-to-head week only 7-2 or 8-1. Fear not, there are always some interesting centers left in the 40-70 range, like Okur, Ilgauskas, Chandler, Bogut. And ssshhh, don't tell anyone that Greg Oden may step in this year. Anyways, you can always find rebounds. I'm looking at you, guy ready to pick up Nick Collison.

Plan Beta - big/big

Who is going to be left around this spot? One of this group should be around: Boozer, Gasol, Jefferson, Duncan. If all of these are gone, you're rolling back into Plan Alpha or going with scorers. If you can nail two of these 4, look out. You'll have coverage in eight if not all nine categories; the next few rounds, you can pick and choose categories to draft. Round 4 - best assists guy left. Round 5 - best rebounder. Round 6 - best 3's guy. Round 7 - best foreign/white guy left. Round 11 - guy who went to your alma mater (good if you went to UCLA or Farragut Academy, not so good if you went to Bowling Green).

Let's say you only get one of that group. There's another guy, an All-Star, who may be intriguing on your roster: David West. Some people don't like 2 guys from the same team on their roster, especially 2 top players who you are counting on for serious stats. You can be under the mercy of the schedule, particularly in a 2 game week. Last year there was an example of 2 top teammates not beholden to a schedule: Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison of the Wizards were 2 top players, but they never had a 2 game week. (Of course, they had fewer 4 game weeks.) And if one should go down to injury, that other guy's stats should ramp up, like Jamison picking it up with Butler down with the hip and Arenas down with the knee. And lawzy lawzy, look out if the Hornets were to have a late season 5 game week. Keep it in mind if you want that second early big to go with Paul.

2nd/3rd round picks: 2 out of the following - Tim Duncan, Al Jefferson, Carlos Boozer, Pau Gasol, David West.

Plan Charlie - little/big (or big/little - what's the diff, Jif?)

Take one of the best available from above groups. I'd put preference on the PG/SG and PF/C guys, for roster flexibility.

Plan Delta - best 2 available

For those who like the SF types, too. Keep in mind you need a semblance of a roster. And best available doesn't mean grab Yao Ming if he's slipped to 20; let him be someone else's problem.

Plan Echo - back to back picks to make a brother say, "Damn!"

In theory, after 19 picks, one or both of these guys should be gone. But if it comes back around to you and you can go Marcus Camby/Josh Smith, well my friend, you just might be the most interesting man in the world. You might want to save this one for the free Yahoo league you sign up for to get practice. You'd have more blockage than the arteries of "Bill Swerski's SuperFans". Then again, this strategy might have more pow! if your first round pick was not Chris Paul but instead was ...

Amare Stoudemire.
(more in next post)...