Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #7

You're probably saying to yourself, there haven't been many Germans picked yet. And you'd be right, because Chris Kaman is still on the board. But there's another German left who might be a better pick, Dirk Nowitzki. You know, 2007 MVP. 2006 NBA Finals MVP in the non-Bennett Salvatore alternate universe (DC Comics' Earth-9). Anyway, if you've had Dirk on your team the last few years, he would have been a damn fine cornerstone. This year should be no exception, what with him not so playoff weary after 2 1st round exits, Kidd passing him the ball, and not a whole heck of a lot of really great scoring help besides Josh Howard. Here, look at the numbers:

PPG - 23.6
3PG - 1.0
RPG - 8.5
APG - 3.5
SPG - 0.7
BPG - 0.9
TOPG - 2.1
FGAPG - 17.1
FG% - 48.0%
FTAPG - 7.1
FT% - 87.9%

And if you really get down and dirty with the numbers, Dirk was the third best fantasy player in the league once Jason Kidd became a Maverick. That's heady numbers. And the thing about the Mavs, is they are good, but they aren't that good, like a 5 or 6 or 7 seed out West. That means they won't get blown out by great teams so the big guns like Dirk will be playing 4 quarters. And in games where they blow out the Memphises, the big guns will still put up winning numbers in only 3 quarters. Here's where you like having those slightly-above-.500-team players. Mind you, you shouldn't make this an overall drafting strategy, but it's just a happy by-product of having guys from these teams. It's like if you enjoy "The Real World" but don't have a DVR and you never catch it when it's on. No need to change your life or anything, because MTV has so little quality programming you just need to wait until they run some Real World marathon on a Sunday morning. At least I think it's like that.
Corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion - Bobby and Cindy get lost in the Grand Canyon chasing a Native American boy. You're picking 7th and you think, what to do, what to do? You think a trip to the Grand Canyon will be great, but you've already been robbed and jailed by Thurston Howell III, got a sore ass from mule rides, and lost 2 kids in a huge national park. Chevy Chase on vacation laughs at you. But then all is well and you get to go to a tribal ceremony and get cool Indian names except for Peter. Right now, you've got one of the top performers in the league, and after 6 picks, you'll have one of the top 14 players to go with Dirk. Nice.

At this point, I'm looking at 2 options: best remaining center-eligible and best point guard-eligible. You'll get a little better feel for eligibility once Yahoo's player list comes out. But center-wise, you're looking at a group of Duncan, Brand, Camby, Bosh, Yao, Boozer, and Gasol. If any of those first four fell into your lap, I think that makes the decision fairly easy. Boozer is interesting - plenty of good numbers there, but maybe not enough for a high second round pick. If you go point guard, you're looking at what's left in a group of Dwyane Wade, Baron Davis, Allen Iverson, Gilbert Arenas, and Steve Nash. If you like your point guards to be scorers, you're in luck. There should be no way that all of those guys are gone before it wraps around back to you. Now, if you're in a 12 team league, it's a bit more of a pickle. With Dirk, you will need either a top notch C or PG - not much left. But you can add 2 names to your list who aren't one of those - Josh Smith (for blocks) and Caron Butler (for steals and FT). You'll be forward-centric, but you can't believe they'll be there for you in round 3. And like I said in the Chris Paul post, Dirk in a short week is a problem because his strengths really get minimized in a 2 game week - %'s, pts, rebs, 3's. You'll need a number 2 who can rack up numbers in the harded to achieve counting categories - assists, steals, and blocks. So here I like Nash, Camby, Smith, Butler.

Anyway, 10 team league, and my second round looks to go for big or medium, then hope one of the next-tier point guards being there in round 3 - Deron Williams, Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis. If those 3 are off the board or if there is another PF/C too good too pass up (Al Jefferson, David West), I'm moving down the PG list to Mo Williams, Andre Miller, Brandon Roy territory. Just stop me before I amble into Rafer Alston/Raymond Felton/Kirk Hinrich country. (But there may be a place for Rajon Rondo-land, especially if he plays like he did in some (but not all) playoff games.)

With Dirk on your team, a solid way to go is a team in his image - focusing on percentages, points, rebounds, and low turnovers, hence going big in round 2. You'll be scrambling for blocks and threes all year. Steals, you'll have to get lucky on. And I'm focusing on a few high FG%/relatively low TO point guards - Andre Miller, Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Devin Harris, Tony Parker, and Rajon Rondo.

Here's my round by round targets when I've got Dirk:
Round 1 (#7) - Dirk
Round 2 (#14) - C, PF/C
Round 3 (#27) - PG, F
Round 4 (#34) - best player available regardless of position
Round 5 (#47) - best PG available to screw whoever doesn't have a PG, best scorer left
Round 6 (#54) - best rebounder available
Round 7+ - round out roster, fill in SG/SF gaps, get a guy who shoots 3's
Round 23 - Eddy Curry

Whereas some guys you pick in the first round, you want to combat weaknesses, Dirk is a guy who I think you should pick people around him that magnify strengths. You won't get blown out head to head and you can pile up 6-3's and 5-4's into the playoffs. You may not be in first, but you'll be that "team you don't want to play in the playoffs". Well that's always fun, isn't it?