Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #7

You're probably saying to yourself, there haven't been many Germans picked yet. And you'd be right, because Chris Kaman is still on the board. But there's another German left who might be a better pick, Dirk Nowitzki. You know, 2007 MVP. 2006 NBA Finals MVP in the non-Bennett Salvatore alternate universe (DC Comics' Earth-9). Anyway, if you've had Dirk on your team the last few years, he would have been a damn fine cornerstone. This year should be no exception, what with him not so playoff weary after 2 1st round exits, Kidd passing him the ball, and not a whole heck of a lot of really great scoring help besides Josh Howard. Here, look at the numbers:

PPG - 23.6
3PG - 1.0
RPG - 8.5
APG - 3.5
SPG - 0.7
BPG - 0.9
TOPG - 2.1
FGAPG - 17.1
FG% - 48.0%
FTAPG - 7.1
FT% - 87.9%

And if you really get down and dirty with the numbers, Dirk was the third best fantasy player in the league once Jason Kidd became a Maverick. That's heady numbers. And the thing about the Mavs, is they are good, but they aren't that good, like a 5 or 6 or 7 seed out West. That means they won't get blown out by great teams so the big guns like Dirk will be playing 4 quarters. And in games where they blow out the Memphises, the big guns will still put up winning numbers in only 3 quarters. Here's where you like having those slightly-above-.500-team players. Mind you, you shouldn't make this an overall drafting strategy, but it's just a happy by-product of having guys from these teams. It's like if you enjoy "The Real World" but don't have a DVR and you never catch it when it's on. No need to change your life or anything, because MTV has so little quality programming you just need to wait until they run some Real World marathon on a Sunday morning. At least I think it's like that.
Corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion - Bobby and Cindy get lost in the Grand Canyon chasing a Native American boy. You're picking 7th and you think, what to do, what to do? You think a trip to the Grand Canyon will be great, but you've already been robbed and jailed by Thurston Howell III, got a sore ass from mule rides, and lost 2 kids in a huge national park. Chevy Chase on vacation laughs at you. But then all is well and you get to go to a tribal ceremony and get cool Indian names except for Peter. Right now, you've got one of the top performers in the league, and after 6 picks, you'll have one of the top 14 players to go with Dirk. Nice.

At this point, I'm looking at 2 options: best remaining center-eligible and best point guard-eligible. You'll get a little better feel for eligibility once Yahoo's player list comes out. But center-wise, you're looking at a group of Duncan, Brand, Camby, Bosh, Yao, Boozer, and Gasol. If any of those first four fell into your lap, I think that makes the decision fairly easy. Boozer is interesting - plenty of good numbers there, but maybe not enough for a high second round pick. If you go point guard, you're looking at what's left in a group of Dwyane Wade, Baron Davis, Allen Iverson, Gilbert Arenas, and Steve Nash. If you like your point guards to be scorers, you're in luck. There should be no way that all of those guys are gone before it wraps around back to you. Now, if you're in a 12 team league, it's a bit more of a pickle. With Dirk, you will need either a top notch C or PG - not much left. But you can add 2 names to your list who aren't one of those - Josh Smith (for blocks) and Caron Butler (for steals and FT). You'll be forward-centric, but you can't believe they'll be there for you in round 3. And like I said in the Chris Paul post, Dirk in a short week is a problem because his strengths really get minimized in a 2 game week - %'s, pts, rebs, 3's. You'll need a number 2 who can rack up numbers in the harded to achieve counting categories - assists, steals, and blocks. So here I like Nash, Camby, Smith, Butler.

Anyway, 10 team league, and my second round looks to go for big or medium, then hope one of the next-tier point guards being there in round 3 - Deron Williams, Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis. If those 3 are off the board or if there is another PF/C too good too pass up (Al Jefferson, David West), I'm moving down the PG list to Mo Williams, Andre Miller, Brandon Roy territory. Just stop me before I amble into Rafer Alston/Raymond Felton/Kirk Hinrich country. (But there may be a place for Rajon Rondo-land, especially if he plays like he did in some (but not all) playoff games.)

With Dirk on your team, a solid way to go is a team in his image - focusing on percentages, points, rebounds, and low turnovers, hence going big in round 2. You'll be scrambling for blocks and threes all year. Steals, you'll have to get lucky on. And I'm focusing on a few high FG%/relatively low TO point guards - Andre Miller, Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Devin Harris, Tony Parker, and Rajon Rondo.

Here's my round by round targets when I've got Dirk:
Round 1 (#7) - Dirk
Round 2 (#14) - C, PF/C
Round 3 (#27) - PG, F
Round 4 (#34) - best player available regardless of position
Round 5 (#47) - best PG available to screw whoever doesn't have a PG, best scorer left
Round 6 (#54) - best rebounder available
Round 7+ - round out roster, fill in SG/SF gaps, get a guy who shoots 3's
Round 23 - Eddy Curry

Whereas some guys you pick in the first round, you want to combat weaknesses, Dirk is a guy who I think you should pick people around him that magnify strengths. You won't get blown out head to head and you can pile up 6-3's and 5-4's into the playoffs. You may not be in first, but you'll be that "team you don't want to play in the playoffs". Well that's always fun, isn't it?

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #6

You've come up with pick number six and think to yourself, "What the frank am I supposed to do with this?" Well, Frank, you could pick a guy who a year or 2 ago might have been top 2. Matrix. Marion, Shawn. Big guy, used to be on the Suns. He fills up the stat sheet, but not so much last year. Also, he is no longer playing with Steve Nash. In fact, his point guard this year in Miami is aptly named "Not-Steve Nash" (I think he went to UCSB). Corresponding Brady Bunch emotion: Bobby and Greg get locked in Sam the Butcher's meat locker - all because Bobby tried to act cool and big, complaining the whole episode about being little. Then they got out because he was small enough to fit through the window in the door. The lesson is - know your damn place! Shawn, you put up great numbers across the board, but you aren't going to be the one to lead the team and have the ball in your hands at the end. Leave that to guys like D-Wade. But keep putting up the numbers.


PPG - 15.7
3PG - 1.1
RPG - 10.4
APG - 2.2
SPG - 2.0
BPG - 1.4
TOPG - 1.4
FGAPG - 12.7
FG% - 50.8%
FTAPG - 2.4
FT% - 70.7%

07-08 was not the best year for Shawn, and his numbers the last part of the season weren't anything to write home about - he was barely top 50 with the Heat when healthy. His percentages, scoring, threes, and blocks were down, rebounding was up. The lack of Nash factor was huge. Miami's point guard situation isn't any better, but maybe with everyone healthy and not being a D-leaguer should work out better for them. And the big thing for Marion this year is summed up in 2 little words - contract year. Fantasy-wise, the Heat team poses a number of questions: is Wade healthy? What kind of numbers will he put up? How does Marion do? Are there enough touches for Wade, Marion, Beasley, Haslem? (The answer for are there enough balls for Chris Quinn and Daequan Cook - no.) I'd like to think this roster shakes out a little better as November approaches. Taking Marion means you'll have a lot of questions the first few months of the year, maybe too many to warrant a pick this high at #6. The thing is, you aren't going to find defensive numbers like his anywhere else. The key now is, who do you take at #15 and #26?

My first inclination - be the anti-Steve Kerr and put Marion and Nash back together again. Marion is low TO, Nash high TO; Marion high steals, Nash, low steals. Marion low assists, Nash high assists. It's a nice little dovetail. You're going to need a scorer soon, so target points in round 3. A bit of a reach, but you could go Jose Calderon - if you were recapping the draft as you would chess moves, there would be an exclamation point after that (preferably not a question mark). The case could be made for Calderon: plenty of assists, low turnovers, more steals. The scoring volume is not there as it is for Nash, especially with threes. But now that you know he has the full allotment of Toronto PG minutes; that could make the difference. While this would be a reach at 15, you can't imagine he would be there at 26. How bad do you want him on your team? Oh, and Boom Dizzle, now a Clip, wouldn't be too bad of a pick here. Of course if it were between him and a big, I'd go big. Maybe Bosh or Brand slips to here? I can't imagine it, but picks 11-14 are going to be really interesting in your draft, as there are a lot of talented people out there who are just below the first round level.

So Marion is one way to go - and right now I have him penciled in at #6. You could make the case for who I have at #7 to go higher. This guy....

Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #5

Hmm, #5, some good players off the board. But has anybody picked a guy who really likes Sprite? No, I'm not talking about Miles Thirst, he's retired. I mean a guy looking for a witness, the one man gang, LeBron James. Dude can score, rebound, and pass the ball. Straight D, the man can steal it and block it as well. But now we're at the point where the top guys you pick have problems that you've got to counteract. You see the TO's - again, as with Kobe in your non-TO leagues, that's aiyight. It's those motherflippin' free throws. 7 for 10 three times a week will kill you. It I doubt it will get any better in '09. (Corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion - multipart episode where the gang goes to King's Island. You know, that's in Ohio. Isn't that where LeBron plays? Sure he's great and all, but in fantasy hoops, is he really all that? The Brady's are SoCal dudes and dudettes - how psyched are they to go to an amusement park in Cincinnati? I mean, Disneyland is right down the road, why not go there? It's where this young impressionable lad finally became cynical in the world of corporate synergy. I liked the Banana Splits, but that was some weak manufactured drama. Yogi Bear in the plans cylinder. Uh-huh. Although Marcia and Jan running throught the park - that's when you realize, 'hey, when did they get those knockers?" And Greg, dude, you live in Southern California, there's hotness at every corner, do you really have to work that hard to get an Ohio chick who you'll never see again in a day or two? I thought Mr. Something-Suddenly-Came-Up was a babe magnet, but this episode makes me think that the Greg as a loser portrayal in The Brady Bunch Movie was spot on. Casanova of Clinton Way my ass.)

PPG - 30.0
3PG - 1.5
RPG - 7.9
APG - 7.2
SPG - 1.8
BPG - 1.1
TOPG - 3.4
FGAPG -21.9
FG% - 48.4%
FTAPG - 10.3
FT% - 71.2%

30 points per freaking game - that's Peter Griffin sweet. And if you take a look at the Cavs roster (get out your safety goggles) no one else is going to pick up the slack, maybe the Big Z on a good week. Barring injury, all of these numbers are going to hold - good and bad. Sure, you'll get the 30 a game, but those turnovers aren't going to get magically better now that he's passing to Joe Smith for a full year, huh? Oh, and enjoy that 71% free throw shooting. It's going to hound you all year, except for that one week he really turns it on and shoots 49-52 to really piss off the guy you are playing.

See here, LeBron is going to be the first guy taken in the fantasy draft where you have to construct your team to overcome or counteract a weakness. Chris Paul doesn't rebound, but he's not supposed to rebound; it's a gap, but not a weakness. LeBron's FT and TO's are serious holes to dig out of. You are going to want to target specific guys to craft the best team. Personally, I think it's best to have taken LeBron in the middle of the first round - #4, #5, or #6. That way, you'll have less picks in between where you are going an less likelihood of your guy being plucked off the board.

Anyway, in picking with LeBron, you could go the way of having a team with Kobe and gettinga bunch of scorers to go with him. I think Allen Iverson fits quite nicely with James. You'll help your free throws, scoring stays high, steals will be nice. Steve Nash is another decent pick here, too. It's not great, but decent, and either way, you'll have a nice assist tally each week. You're pretty much sunk in turnovers now. And I'd like to see how the Olympics and Heat training camp go, so we know what to do with Dwyane Wade. LeBron and Wade on your team would be nice to tell your friends who aren't in fantasy basketball. May not win you the league, but hey.

All told, LBJ is going to make your team interesting and your draft funky. You've got a lot of different ways to go, but it looks like a best player available type of deal, and get ready to deal during the year. You could change all that, and go with a guy who has somehow fallen to 6th...