Your fantasy draft - and you've got pick #1

I know, your draft is months away and this season isn't even over yet. Well, get to thinking about it, fool! Lay some groundwork, get a gameplan, don't rely on a magazine that comes out in October but was written in August, and asking "Why does he like Francisco Garcia so much?". In fantasy hoops, the draft is very vital, more than a recital; in a couple of words, it's tricky. Thanks to the snake format, you can win from any position. But no matter the draft, you always want the number one pick. It's got style, cachet, and if you screw it up, your buddies will call you Michael Jordan - not the "championship winning MJ", but the "drafting Kwame Brown MJ".

Let's say you win your draft lottery, or sucked so much they give you the number 1 pick. Okay, you're picking number one - have to be excited, but temper it with the fact you won't have a pick again for almost 2 rounds (Corresponding Brady Bunch episode emotion: family learns they are going to Hawai'i for Mike's working vacation. Paradise, but frought with danger.) Depending on your league's rules and format, here's who I'm taking with pick #1, round 1:

Chris Paul

Here are his stats for last year:

MPG - 37.6
PPG - 21.0
3PG - 1.2
RPG - 4.0
APG - 11.6
SPG - 2.7
BPG - 0.1
TOPG - 2.5
FG% - 48.0 (16.1 per game)
FT% - 85.1 (4.9 per game)

On Basketball Monster, CP3 is the number 1 ranked player based on a 9 cat league (3's and TO's included), which is incredible for someone with 2.5 turnovers. There were only six 20 and 10 guys - Paul the only one in assists and not bounds. He led the league in steals. And sweet Mary and Joseph, look at those percentages! If he was a borderline first rounder last year, he's easily in the top half of your first round for 08-09. If you take him, you're set up for strength in 4 categories - assists, steals, percentages, and not too bad in turnovers since there are about 20 top notch guards alone who have more.

Another key here - Paul's strengths make him nearly schedule proof, i.e., his strong categories are ones that can be severely hampered by a 2 game week for a normal player. Paul can give you 20 assists and 5 steals in a short week, meaning you can lock him in and adjust your team a lot easier in short weeks. Now, you shouldn't be taking your #1 pick out of the lineup in a 2 game week, but CP3's 2-gamer won't have a crippling effect on your stats, like if you had Dirk Nowitzki as the #1 on your team playing a short week. Dirk is a main man in points, percentages, and rebounds, with decent blocking. All of those categories can be overcome by an slightly better than average player playing 3 games to Dirk's 2. Think Lamarcus Aldrigde x 3 : Dirk Nowitzki x 2. Now if you have Chris Paul playing only 2 games in a week, and he just has an average week, that's 23 assists, 5 steals, 5 turnovers, 2 or 3 three-pointers, and percentages that won't kill you. Compare that to a middle of the road PG playing 3 games, say, a T.J. Ford: 18 assists, 3 steals, 6 turnovers, 1 or 2 three-pointers.

Okay, you've got Chris Paul, where do you go? Let's say you're bold and you took him number 1. For simplicity, we'll say it's a 10 team league, so now you're up at 20 and 21.

Plan Alpha - little/little

You've got your starting point guard; in a typical lineup, you have an SG and a G spot still left (plus whatever U's). Dream scenario - you have your pick of top point guards left, preferrably one with shooting guard eligibility. Allen Iverson is a possibility, but you've got to worry if he goes back to his pure chucking/turning it over days of the post Larry Brown era. Deron Williams may be a bit of a reach, but you could own assists and rock percentages. Monta Ellis is an even bigger reach, but he shouldn't be there at 40. It might be a good gamble to pass at 21 and see if he lasts to 40. Boom Dizzle could be around at 20. You could wager that he has a good, healthy year as the Clippers main man. Chauncey Billups is good, but his minutes should go down with more of a Stuckey presence. Of course, I thought his numbers would go down last year - eventually I'll be right about him. I'd put Nash in the conversation, but a) someone is bound to take him in the first 2 rounds and b) age and a change of pace from the D'Antoni Suns have to effect his numbers. Oh, and let someone else in your league play with Jason Kidd; don't be sucked in by the near triple double averages. I don't want one of my guards shooting 41%. (Says the guy who had Jamal Crawford on his team for a stretch last year. On purpose). Of course, if you are employing the "I'm gonna win rebounds this year, by cracky" strategy, go right ahead. If so, what the hay-yell are you doing picking Chris Paul?!?

For the shooting guard side, Paul Pierce may still be out there. I'd look at some of the steal guys - Iguodala, Rudy Gay (Josh Smith if Yahoo somehow keeps its head up its collective ass and gives him SG eligibility again and he's still on the board). Kevin Martin would be great if you really want to lock down FT% (86.9% with an outstanding 9.5 attempts per game). And take a look at Jason Richardson, but keep him on the down low, because he doesn't immediately come to mind as a top 20 player.

If you're employing the little/little strategy, I'd go with the best PG (better - PG/SG), and then one of the top scorers who can do something else. Deron Williams and Rudy Gay would be a tasty combo. Now you're going to need some beef out there later. Rounds 4/5, you're almost locked into picking someone center-eligible. Oh, and it looks like you've punted blocks. Oh well, you might win a head-to-head week only 7-2 or 8-1. Fear not, there are always some interesting centers left in the 40-70 range, like Okur, Ilgauskas, Chandler, Bogut. And ssshhh, don't tell anyone that Greg Oden may step in this year. Anyways, you can always find rebounds. I'm looking at you, guy ready to pick up Nick Collison.

Plan Beta - big/big

Who is going to be left around this spot? One of this group should be around: Boozer, Gasol, Jefferson, Duncan. If all of these are gone, you're rolling back into Plan Alpha or going with scorers. If you can nail two of these 4, look out. You'll have coverage in eight if not all nine categories; the next few rounds, you can pick and choose categories to draft. Round 4 - best assists guy left. Round 5 - best rebounder. Round 6 - best 3's guy. Round 7 - best foreign/white guy left. Round 11 - guy who went to your alma mater (good if you went to UCLA or Farragut Academy, not so good if you went to Bowling Green).

Let's say you only get one of that group. There's another guy, an All-Star, who may be intriguing on your roster: David West. Some people don't like 2 guys from the same team on their roster, especially 2 top players who you are counting on for serious stats. You can be under the mercy of the schedule, particularly in a 2 game week. Last year there was an example of 2 top teammates not beholden to a schedule: Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison of the Wizards were 2 top players, but they never had a 2 game week. (Of course, they had fewer 4 game weeks.) And if one should go down to injury, that other guy's stats should ramp up, like Jamison picking it up with Butler down with the hip and Arenas down with the knee. And lawzy lawzy, look out if the Hornets were to have a late season 5 game week. Keep it in mind if you want that second early big to go with Paul.

2nd/3rd round picks: 2 out of the following - Tim Duncan, Al Jefferson, Carlos Boozer, Pau Gasol, David West.

Plan Charlie - little/big (or big/little - what's the diff, Jif?)

Take one of the best available from above groups. I'd put preference on the PG/SG and PF/C guys, for roster flexibility.

Plan Delta - best 2 available

For those who like the SF types, too. Keep in mind you need a semblance of a roster. And best available doesn't mean grab Yao Ming if he's slipped to 20; let him be someone else's problem.

Plan Echo - back to back picks to make a brother say, "Damn!"

In theory, after 19 picks, one or both of these guys should be gone. But if it comes back around to you and you can go Marcus Camby/Josh Smith, well my friend, you just might be the most interesting man in the world. You might want to save this one for the free Yahoo league you sign up for to get practice. You'd have more blockage than the arteries of "Bill Swerski's SuperFans". Then again, this strategy might have more pow! if your first round pick was not Chris Paul but instead was ...

Amare Stoudemire.
(more in next post)...